The Science of Prediction
Future of prediction markets: how technology enables the wisdom of crowds.
In the wake of crowd-funding and crowd-sourcing comes crowd-wisdom. Given the complexity and difficulty of the challenges facing humanity, the development of systems for improved crowd-wisdom can be seen as a priority.
Researchers have shown that people working together to forecast future outcomes can produce far more accurate results than individuals, even when these individuals are recognised experts in their field. Sharing and debating the results with others can quickly eliminate bias and sharpen predictive reliability. This interaction allows predictive markets to live up to their full potential as aggregators of insight from diverse sources.
Mike Halsall is Executive Chairman of SlowVoice, which has developed several forecasting platforms including Almanis (free, open to the public). Mike will talk on the evolution of collaborative forecasting and demonstrate Almanis.
The Almanis platform enables crowd forecasting, and runs competitions on predictions in fields including geopolitics, financial markets, emerging industries, social issues, technology, medical matters, economics, and even light relief. The site is open at http://www.almanis.com/.
Participants can contribute answers, provide explanations for these answers, and suggest new questions. Participants gain credit for high calibre contributions, and become eligible for cash prices.
See this Economist article on Almanis: "A new type of prediction market".
About Mike Halsall:
Mike Halsall is an entrepreneur in technology, construction and real estate. More recently he co-founded two substantial real estate funds in Luxembourg, successfully selling one to AXA S.A. in December 2006.
Mike recently co-established the UK Government’s civil service innovation challenge, involving Singularity University and Oxford University’s Said Business School. Open to 40,000 civil servants, it was won by a team from the Home Office.
Mike is also the UK Ambassador for the Singularity University, and is a contributor to UK Government reports on emerging technologies including the recently completed Blackett Review on Distributed Ledger Technology.