Ten Reasons Planning, Estimation and Forecasting Fails (and what to do about it) with Troy Magennis
Ever wondered why Google maps manages to outperform spousal travel navigation advice time and time again? They use data rather than intuition alone. This session looks at how to forecast using data in our world of software and operations. We discuss how to use simple probabilistic techniques to forecast features and projects without reliance on story point estimates alone.
A key part of forecasting well is understanding what assumptions might go wrong. We will discuss my top-ten reasons planned doesn't (and hasn't) always matched reality; How to tell exposure to those factors and how to avoid them.
Key takeaways from this session are:
1. How to think about forecasting using data, and why we need an approach that embraces uncertainty
2. How to build a simple probabilistic forecast that allows three simple range estimates that will outperform traditional methods
3. What can go wrong with estimation, planning and forecasting and how to identify your organizations exposure, and how to avoid these factors altogether.
By the end of this "no math" session you will be capable of performing rapid Monte Carlo forecasts for your projects and teams. Feel free to benefit from my mistakes before you begin making your own.
Speaker Bio: Troy has been involved with technology companies since 1994, fulfilling roles from QA through to VP for multinational companies. Troy speaks at many Agile conferences and has played an Agile training and mentoring role for executives in small and large organizations. Previous clients include: Walmart, Microsoft, Skype, Sabre Airline Solutions, Siemens Healthcare.Troy currently consults and trains organizations wanting to improve decision making on software portfolio and project questions through Agile and Lean thinking and tools. Applying Scrum and Lean techniques appropriately and where they are going to make this biggest benefit through quantitative rigor.
Troy is teaching a series of exclusive workshops with Learning Connexions on modelling & forecasting (spaces are limited), details below:
Forecasting using Data - 5th April
Advanced Modelling and Forecasting – 6th April
Price: £595 + VAT for 1 day or £990 + VAT if booked together